Galtung's prediction

Galtung's prediction on the fall of the American empire
(Coordinator Comment)

The famous peace researcher Johan Galtung has predicted that the American empire is likely to crash by the year 2020. He makes this prediction in an article entitled "On the Coming Decline and Fall of the U.S. Empire" which is available on the Internet. Galtung was the founder of the Journal of Peace Research, the International Peace Research Institute of Oslo and, more recently, the development and peace network, TRANSCEND.

Galtung's argument is detailed and rather difficult to follow. But one must take him seriously for the following reason. In 1980 Galtung predicted the collapse of the Soviet Empire in 10 years and he was precisely correct. As he has said, "The prediction, made many times by this author in 1980, was that the Soviet Empire would crumble not because of any single factor but because of 'synchronic maturation of contradictions, followed by demoralization of Center and Periphery elites', with the Berlin Wall crumbling in an early phase, within 10 years."